Jul 6, 2007 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 6 11:25:36 UTC 2007
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20070706 0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20070706 0800 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 061123
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0623 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2007
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   CORRECTED GENERAL TSTM LINES
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FURTHER DE-AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FLOW
   PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN TIER OF
   STATES...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NERN STATES ON DAY 1
   REMAINS PROGRESSIVE TRACKING TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
   SATURDAY.  THE NAM REMAINS THE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH UPSTREAM SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH...NOW APPROACHING BC COAST...AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ESEWD
   FROM AB/SK TO SRN MB/WRN ONTARIO AND ADJACENT NORTH CENTRAL STATES
   DURING DAY 2.
   
   DESPITE THESE UPPER LEVEL DIFFERENCES...MODELS TEND TO AGREE IN THE
   LOW LEVELS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND
   UPPER MS VALLEY.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES...
   IN ADDITION TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THERE ARE
   MODEL UNCERTAINTIES IN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT RETURNS
   NWD INTO ERN ND/NWRN MN ON SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM/NAMKF SUGGESTING
   THE GREATEST MOISTURE RETURN.  INCREASING ZONAL MID LEVEL WIND
   COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN EWD ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INTO
   THIS REGION...ATOP AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH AIR
   MASS BECOMING MODERATELY TO POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF FRONT
   BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY
   STRONG CAP ACROSS WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WHICH WILL POTENTIALLY LIMIT
   DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF FRONT.  NAM/NAMKF SOLUTIONS
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT...DUE IN LARGE
   PART TO THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
   MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA.  THE LESS DYNAMIC
   SOLUTION OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CAP BEING MAINTAINED WITH
   NO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN
   LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION AND UNCERTAINTY IN CAP BREAKING FOR
   STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM SECTOR AIR MASS...PROBABILITY FOR
   SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW.
     
   ...SRN MT/NRN WY...
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
   FLOW REGIME WHERE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY.  MODEL
   UNCERTAINTIES EXIST WITH THE COVERAGE OF TSTMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS
   REGION...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 07/06/2007
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z