Oct 3, 2007 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 3 05:33:37 UTC 2007
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20071003 0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20071003 0800 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 030532
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 AM CDT WED OCT 03 2007
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU AFTN/EARLY THU EVE ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE SRN PLATEAU....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   NRN PLAINS....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WITHIN A STRONG CYCLONIC BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES...NOW CURVING
   ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S...A
   SOUTHEASTWARD AMPLIFICATION APPEARS SLOWLY UNDERWAY.  AND...MODELS
   INDICATE THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. 
   BY 12Z FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS MUCH
   OF THE WESTERN STATES...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT
   WAVE IMPULSE STILL DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  AT THE SAME TIME
   ...THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD NORTHWARD
   THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND.
   
   JUST AHEAD OF THE POLAR TROUGH...THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL APPEAR
   SIMILAR IN INDICATING THAT A SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE WILL
   ADVECT INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA...WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
   FLOW REGIME...REACHING THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU BY PEAK HEATING
   THURSDAY.  A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE
   THIS SYSTEM INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES.  AND...A RETURN FLOW OF
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
   ALSO OCCUR...AS LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES IN RESPONSE TO
   EVOLVING UPSTREAM PATTERN.
   
   MEANWHILE...CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO EXIST AMONG THE
   MODELS CONCERNING A POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE
   GULF OF MEXICO.  BUT...GUIDANCE STILL GENERALLY INDICATES THAT AN
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES
   CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   
   ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
   MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION BY
   PEAK HEATING THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/
   SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG
   SEEMS LIKELY.  AND...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS...FROM THE LOWER DESERTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
   MOGOLLON RIM.  EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
   MID/UPPER FLOW...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
   UPDRAFT ROTATION...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.  THE RISK FOR
   LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE STORMS
   WEAKEN/DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   ...PLAINS...
   THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS STILL A BIT
   UNCLEAR...DUE TO UNCERTAIN STRENGTH OF INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH A
   FAIRLY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  ISOLATED...RELATIVELY
   SHORT-LIVED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE 04/21Z-05/00Z
   TIME FRAME.  IF THIS OCCURS...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL
   APPEARS TO EXIST FROM A POSSIBLE DRY LINE/SURFACE WARM FRONT
   INTERSECTION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
   KANSAS...IN PROXIMITY TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS.
   
   OTHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY OCCUR LATE THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALONG A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
   AXIS...FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. 
   BUT...THE MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTIVE THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...
   AS MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASE ABOVE A LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI
   VALLEY.  MOST UNSTABLE CAPE REACHING 1000-2000 J/KG WITHIN A
   STRONGLY SHEARED REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...
   PRIMARILY WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..KERR.. 10/03/2007
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z