SPC AC 090744
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 AM CST TUE JAN 09 2007
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL DATA CONCERNING THE PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION OF
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE POLAR TROUGH
PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES...INCREASES DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. BUT...THE NAM/GFS AND THE ECMWF ALL GENERALLY
SUGGEST THAT A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...WHILE A SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE CONTINUES TO DIG THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.
BETTER AGREEMENT SEEMS TO EXIST CONCERNING THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD INTRUSION TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE FRONT
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO CURVE FROM JUST NORTH OF THE OZARKS THROUGH THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY
ULTIMATELY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN THIS.
BUT...MOISTENING FROM ALOFT /BENEATH PLUME OF MOISTURE EMANATING
FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC/ AND LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW OFF A
MODIFYING WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT GULF INFLUX WILL
OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LINGERING WARM/UNSATURATED LAYER
BETWEEN 850-700 MB IS PROGGED TO PERSIST NEAR SURFACE
FRONT...BENEATH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WITHIN ELEVATED PACIFIC
MOIST PLUME. THIS WILL MINIMIZE CAPE...AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
VIGOR OF ANY UPDRAFTS...POSSIBLY EVEN INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AS A RESULT...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE.
..KERR.. 01/09/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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