Feb 9, 2007 1100 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 9 08:31:36 UTC 2007
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20070209 1100 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20070209 1100 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 090828
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CST FRI FEB 09 2007
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...WRN STATES...
   MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST LATE DAY 2...AND THEN MOVE
   INLAND ACROSS NRN CA/ORE TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SUNDAY. 
   DESPITE THIS TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY...EVEN THE SLOWER NAM...WHICH
   WOULD BRING STRONGER ASCENT ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL CA SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON...INDICATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...RESULTING IN
   VERY WEAK INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ...SERN PLAINS TO TN VALLEY...
   GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE SRN EXTENT OF THE WEST COAST SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH TRACKS EWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 12Z MONDAY.  A LEAD
   MID LEVEL IMPULSE...INITIALLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
   SUNDAY MORNING...IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO REGION OF
   CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY.
   
   MODELS DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES...BUT TEND
   TO AGREE THAT A BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ENEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO
   THE TN VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  IN RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT
   FALLS...SSWLY LLJ SHOULD STRENGTHEN FROM E TX TO THE LOWER TN
   VALLEY...RESULTING IN MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL WAA.  WEAK
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH
   EMBEDDED TSTMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE OZARKS EWD TO
   THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT.  A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED
   STORMS AND SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP BEYOND DAY 3...DURING THE
   DAY 4 PERIOD.
   
   ..PETERS.. 02/09/2007
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z