SPC AC 090828
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST FRI FEB 09 2007
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...WRN STATES...
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST LATE DAY 2...AND THEN MOVE
INLAND ACROSS NRN CA/ORE TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SUNDAY.
DESPITE THIS TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY...EVEN THE SLOWER NAM...WHICH
WOULD BRING STRONGER ASCENT ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL CA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...INDICATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...RESULTING IN
VERY WEAK INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT.
...SERN PLAINS TO TN VALLEY...
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE SRN EXTENT OF THE WEST COAST SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRACKS EWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 12Z MONDAY. A LEAD
MID LEVEL IMPULSE...INITIALLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUNDAY MORNING...IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO REGION OF
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY.
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES...BUT TEND
TO AGREE THAT A BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ENEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO
THE TN VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT
FALLS...SSWLY LLJ SHOULD STRENGTHEN FROM E TX TO THE LOWER TN
VALLEY...RESULTING IN MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL WAA. WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE OZARKS EWD TO
THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED
STORMS AND SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP BEYOND DAY 3...DURING THE
DAY 4 PERIOD.
..PETERS.. 02/09/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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