Apr 22, 2007 1100 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 22 07:29:36 UTC 2007
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20070422 1100 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20070422 1100 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 220726
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL PARTS OF KS/OK SWD
   INTO NWRN AND N-CNTRL TX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER
   MO VALLEY SWD INTO PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   LATEST SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
   THE EWD PROGRESSION OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN
   ROCKIES INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY THREE PERIOD.  IN
   THE LOW-LEVELS...SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARD TO THE
   TRACK OF THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW FROM SWRN KS OR THE OK/NRN TX
   PNHDLS TO CNTRL/SERN KS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
   WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE LOWER MO AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS WHILE
   DRYLINE SHIFTS EWD FROM THE ERN OK/TX PNHDLS INTO CNTRL OK SWD TO
   CNTRL TX BY 25/12Z.
   
   ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
   
   INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A FAIRLY CLASSIC SEVERE
   WEATHER EPISODE OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS AS 100-120 KT 250
   MB/50-70 KT 500 MB JET STREAKS AND A CONCENTRATED ZONE OF HEIGHT
   FALLS OVERSPREAD SYSTEM/S WARM SECTOR.  A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
   MASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S/ BENEATH
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AFTERNOON AIR MASS.
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY AFTERNOON FROM
   VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN KS SWD ALONG DRYLINE INTO WRN OK
   AND NWRN TX WITH STORMS MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD/NEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND
   ERN PORTIONS OF KS/OK AND N TX MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WHILE
   UNCERTAINTIES EXIST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION AND EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE MODE...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER A LARGE AREA INDICATE A
   HIGH POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND
   LARGE HAIL.
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AS FAR NE AS THE LOWER MO
   AND MID MS VALLEYS WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ALONG AND N OF WARM
   FRONT...AND AS FAR SW AS SWRN TX ALONG DRYLINE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/22/2007
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z