SPC AC 070728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT FRI SEP 07 2007
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS PERIOD...WITH BAND OF FASTER FLOW
ALOFT ALSO SHIFTING SWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SWD PROGRESS ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS...WHILE MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/LOWER
OH AND TN VALLEYS THROUGH 10/12Z. WHILE THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
WELL S OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT PRECLUDING APPRECIABLE SEVERE
THREAT OVER MOST OF THE CONUS...UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IN THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS HINTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
...ERN CO/NERN NM...
SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE...IN
THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT
SAGS SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH...SHEAR WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. MAIN
QUESTION ATTM REMAINS THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE WHICH CAN RETURN NWWD
IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS -- AND THUS THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION WHICH CAN OCCUR. ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITY...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THREAT FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP. IF IT APPEARS IN LATER
FORECASTS THAT GREATER MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION MIGHT
OCCUR...AREA COULD BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK.
..GOSS.. 09/07/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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