Jan 10, 2008 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 10 00:58:08 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20080110 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20080110 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20080110 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20080110 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 100053
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0653 PM CST WED JAN 09 2008
   
   VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
   CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER DATA FROM ERN CO SWD ACROSS ERN NM
   -- IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER
   PERIOD.  AS THIS OCCURS...SFC LOW -- ANALYZED INITIALLY OVER SWRN
   KS...IS FCST TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS SRN KS THROUGH 10/12Z. 
   ACCOMPANYING/DEVELOPING COLD FRONT -- NOW EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS
   SERN NM -- IS FCST TO MOVE OVER NW TX AND WRN OK...AND REMAIN WELL W
   OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...INITIALLY
   QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...FROM NWRN SC TO AL COAST TO ABOUT 100
   NM OFFSHORE MIDDLE TX COAST...SHOULD RETREAT NWWD ACROSS NWRN AND
   N-CENTRAL GULF TOWARD COASTAL LA AND SE TX.  PRIND FAVORABLE MARINE
   AIR MASS...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
   F...WILL REMAIN LARGELY OVER WATER BUT MAY MOVE OVER PORTIONS SERN
   LA AND EXTREME SRN MS.
   
   ...CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST REGION...
   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS NOW EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS SERN AL AND SRN GA
   MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INVOF SFC FRONTAL ZONE. 
   INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE...BASED ON OBSERVED LOW-MID 60S F SFC DEW POINTS AND
   1.25-1.4 INCH GPS PW READINGS.
   
   BY CONTRAST...CONVECTION ACROSS NRN PORTIONS MS/AL IS ROOTED ABOVE
   SFC AND SHOULD REMAIN SO AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD SRN APPALACHIANS
   THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING.  ALTHOUGH SUPPORTED IN PART BY MOISTURE
   PLUME ACCOMPANYING 20-30 KT SWLY LLJ...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO
   AREA OF VERY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  ELEVATED BUOYANCY GENERALLY
   AOB 300 J/KG SHOULD MINIMIZE SVR POTENTIAL.
   
   FARTHER W...HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT ARE FCST TO TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT
   ACROSS W GULF COASTAL PLAIN...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER E TX
   AND PORTIONS LA.  HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC DEFICIENCIES PRIOR TO 12Z
   WILL PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF SVR PROBABILITIES.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED TSTMS MAY FORM LATE IN PERIOD WITHIN RETREATING FRONTAL
   ZONE ACROSS PORTIONS LA/MS AND PERHAPS SE TX.  MODIFIED FCST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE
   SHALLOW NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER...WITH EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS ROOTED
   ABOVE SFC.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 01/10/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z