The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southeastern u.s this afternoon and tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
| Categorical Graphic |
|---|
|
| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
 |
 |
| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
 |
 |
| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
 |
 |
SPC AC 101603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1003 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF EASTERN MS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AL AND MIDDLE TN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN LA EWD TO FL PANHANDLE NWD TO KY... POTENT S/WV TROUGH CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD TO ACROSS OH VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD AS 100KT 500MB WIND MAX RED RIVER VALLEY SRN OK MOVES TO MO BOOTHEEL BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW SWRN MO ATTM DEEPENS AND MOVES TO LOWER OH VALLEY THIS EVENING AS 50-60KT LLJ IS RAPIDLY INCREASING GULF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NWD ACROSS LOWER MS INTO TN VALLEYS. SHEAR PROFILES BECOME VERY STRONG AND FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES SWWD THRU SRN AR INTO ERN TX. IN EARLIER OUTLOOKS THE PRIMARY LIMITATION FOR A TORNADO THREAT WAS HOW MUCH HEATING AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY WOULD BE AVAILABLE. MODELS APPEAR TO BE DEFICIENT IN SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND BREAKS NOTED IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AT LEAST INTO CENTRAL AL AND MID 60S MIDDLE TN. THUS MLCAPES TO AT LEAST 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY MID AFTERNOON NWD TO CENTRAL AL ALONG WITH LITTLE CINH. WHILE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG ASCENT WRN TN INTO MS...MORE DISCRETE STORMS ARE LIKELY BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR INTO NRN/CENTRAL AL AND MID TN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ALONG WITH APPROACH OF 100KT 500 MB WIND MAX SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG /LONG TRACK TORNADOES IF DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOP. DISCRETE STORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED INTO SRN MS AND THESE SHOULD PERSIST WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL AS THEY TRACK NEWD. A MORE LINER MODE SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE AFTER DARK...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS AL INTO NWRN GA. ..HALES.. 01/10/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z