The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southeastern u.s this afternoon and tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 101935 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN SWD INTO ERN MS AND NRN/CNTRL/WRN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR OH VLY SWD TO THE CNTRL GULF CST STATES... ...LWR OH/TN VLYS SWD TO CNTRL GULF CST... STG UPR SYSTEM WITH ATTENDANT 90+ KT H5 WIND MAX WAS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE MID-MS VLY AT MID-AFTN...AND WILL TRANSLATE TO THE CNTRL GRTLKS...OH VLY AND CNTRL APLCN REGION BY 12Z FRI. 19Z 1000 MB SFC LOW OVR MO WILL DEVELOP NEWD TO THE THUMB OF MI WITH THE TRAILING FRONT MOVING TO THE SPINE OF THE APLCNS AND CNTRL GULF CST BY EARLY FRI MORNING. IMPRESSIVE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH STG PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING ACROSS THE TN/OH VLYS THIS AFTN. 19Z WARM FRONT HAS DEVELOPED INTO SRN KY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN 60S OVER A LARGE PART OF THE TN VLY/DEEP S. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT/STG LOW-LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SFC TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 70 DEG F HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES 500-1500 J/KG. THE WARM FRONT MAY CONTINUE INTO CNTRL/NRN KY THIS EVE. SWLY H5 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 KTS ATOP SLY LOW-LVL FLOW WAS PRODUCING MORE THAN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. NUMEROUS ROTATING STORMS HAVE EVOLVED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER A LARGE REAL ESTATE FROM KY SWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE STG OVER MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR...ENHANCED SRH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD OVER THE TN VLY LATER THIS EVE AS PRIMARY UPR IMPULSE MOVES TOWARD THE GRTLKS REGION. LARGE HAIL...ISOLD BASEBALLS OR GREATER...AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. TORNADOES...A FEW STG...WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SURGE INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS ERN MS/AL AND SRN MIDDLE TN. FARTHER N...STRONG DCVA EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NEWD THROUGH THE OH VLY WILL SUPPORT STG-SVR TSTMS N OF THE WARM FRONT/OH RVR THIS EVENING. HERE...STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AND PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. ..RACY.. 01/10/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z