SPC AC 220529
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 PM CST MON JAN 21 2008
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GULF COASTAL STATES TO THE SERN ATLC SEABOARD...
ERN STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ON TUESDAY AS POLAR VORTEX
IMPULSES DIG SWD INTO THE GRTLKS AND OH/TN VLYS. ASSOCD WK GRTLKS
SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM LWR MI INTO SERN ONT DURING TUE AFTN AS AN
UPSTREAM NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W SFC HIGH BUILDS EWD. THIS WILL FORCE A
NEW COLD FRONT SEWD INTO THE GULF COASTAL REGION THROUGH THE PD.
A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING 12Z TUE OVER PARTS OF THE
ARKLAMISS REGION AT THE INTERFACE OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE RETURN
AND STEEPER MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
EWD DURING THE AFTN/EVE TOWARD THE SERN ATLC SEABOARD...THOUGH
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND DECREASE WITH ERN
LONGITUDINAL EXTENT.
MEANWHILE...PRE-FRONTAL SFC STABLE LAYER MAY ERODE GRADUALLY ALONG
THE CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THE AFTN AS LWR 60S SFC DEW POINTS
ADVECT INLAND. LATEST SOUNDING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE AIR MASS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED WITH LAPSE RATES NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY STEEP. AS A RESULT...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR
SFC-BASED STORMS WILL BE NON-ZERO...RISKS FOR SVR TSTMS WILL REMAIN
VERY LOW.
..RACY.. 01/22/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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