The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower oh and mississippi valleys this afternoon and tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 291620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IN...WRN KY AND NERN AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS... ...LOWER/MID MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS... THE AREA OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A MDT RISK. INTENSE S/WV TROUGH ATTM CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD AND WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES OH/TN VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. POWERFUL POLAR JET MAX WITH SPEEDS OF 100-110KT AT 500MB AND TO 160KT AT 300MB CURRENTLY CROSSING OK REACHES MID MS VALLEY BY 00Z AND TO APPALACHIANS 12Z WED. MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING NEWD INTO LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT AT 15Z EXTENDING FROM ERN IA TO SWRN OK. THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TODAY WILL ONLY BE LIMITED BY THE ABILITY OF THE AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS KINEMATICS AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE. SHEAR PROFILES ALL READY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR LWR TO MID MS VALLEY AND WITH THE STRONG ASCENT AND MID LEVEL COOLING SPREADING EWD FROM SRN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST AXIS FROM NERN TX NEWD TO WRN TN. INITIALLY STORMS ARE ELEVATED BUT AS CINH STEADILY ERODES POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES SPREADING NEWD ACROSS MS VLY INTO WRN TN VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS ALONG WITH WIND DAMAGE. PRIMARY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES MID MS VALLEY INTO LOWER OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG FORCING BOTH WITH THE COLD FRONT AND INTENSE S/WV TROUGH SUGGEST THE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL RAPIDLY BECOME LINEAR. HOWEVER SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH JUST AHEAD AND EMBEDDED IN THE LINE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THE RATHER LIMITED AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD THRU THE OH/TN VALLEYS. GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EVEN AS THE CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION DECREASES WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY. ..HALES.. 01/29/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z