The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower oh and mississippi valleys this afternoon and tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 291944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2008 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MO...NORTHEAST AR...SOUTHERN IL...WESTERN TN...WESTERN KY...AND SOUTHERN IND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS... IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER KS/OK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IL INTO EAST TX. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INITIATING ALONG PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS PARTS OF IL/MO/AR WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE AIDED IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED. CELLULAR NATURE OF CURRENT STORMS... COMBINED WITH VERY FAVORABLE LOW/DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /3KM SRH OVER 300 M2/S2 AND 6KM SHEAR OF 60-90 KNOTS/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS AFFECT PARTS OF IL/MO/AR/IND/KY/TN. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE BY DARK AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES STORMS...WITH THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MDT RISK AREA. DENSE CLOUD COVER AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO PARTS OF OH/WV/PA. HOWEVER...EXTREME WIND FIELDS AND UNUSUALLY STRONG FORCING/ CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT MAY MAINTAIN THE RISK OF A LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE WIND EVENT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY OR MAY NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHTNING. ..HART/SMITH.. 01/29/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z