SPC AC 021935
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CST SAT FEB 02 2008
VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NRN CA AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
AN INTENSE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED 500 MILES
W OF THE WA COAST...WILL MOVE SEWD TO THE NRN/CENTRAL CA AREA BY
TONIGHT. LATEST INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AFTER 00Z IN STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SPREADING INLAND IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF OFFSHORE TSTM DEVELOPMENT /PER OCEANIC
LIGHTNING DATA/ AT THIS TIME WITH THE TROUGH AND FORECAST OF WEAK
INSTABILITY...THE OVERALL TSTM THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
...E/SE TX AREA TONIGHT...
EARLY AFTERNOON BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO
SHOW NWD RETURN OF A MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE WRN GULF. NRN EXTENT
OF TRULY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WITH BUOY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ALONG AND S OF NWD MOVING REMNANT FRONT AND
INDICATED IN THE WRN GULF BY SRN EDGE OF EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS.
THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD TO THE TX COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND E
TX TONIGHT IN A DEVELOPING WAA REGIME. HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /SAMPLED BY RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS ALONG TX
COAST TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND AS INDICATED BY 12Z SOUNDINGS/ WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE RETURNING MOISTURE...RESULTING IN
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP IS
EVIDENT OVER THE WRN GULF THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
STRATUS LOCATED ALONG AND N OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS E/SE TX AND SW
LA...BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE DELAYED
UNTIL THE DAY 2 PERIOD.
..PETERS.. 02/02/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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