SPC AC 050053
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CST MON FEB 04 2008
VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY SWWD INTO CNTRL TX...
...MID MS/OH VALLEYS...
WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR SZL AS OF 00Z WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY NEWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT IN CONCERT WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER IA. AS THIS OCCURS...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SEWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM NRN IND SWWD TO SWRN MO BY 05/12Z.
PERSISTENT SWLY LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED MOISTENING TO
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT. WHEN COUPLED WITH MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAKLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEVELOPING TSTMS
NE OF SZL SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD AND ENCOUNTERS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS. MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PERSIST ACROSS WARM
SECTOR...SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD...THOUGH
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.
00Z REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHOW THAT
AN EML /CAP/ HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH NEARER TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN SUGGESTING THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER E/SE IN THE
WARM SECTOR REMAINS QUITE SMALL.
FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON DEVELOPING STORMS...PLEASE SEE
MCD 139.
...SRN PLAINS...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A FINE LINE FROM TUL-NW OF ADM-MWL AS
OF 0030Z...DE-MARKING THE NWWD RETREAT OF THE DRYLINE. 00Z
OBSERVED...WARM SECTOR SOUNDINGS OVER THE SRN PLAINS ALSO INDICATED
THAT THE AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED BENEATH THE WRN EXTENSION OF EML.
CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY STILL EXISTS IN THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN
05/09-05/12Z ALONG DRYLINE AND/OR COLD FRONT/DRYLINE OCCLUSION. THE
GREATEST LIKLIHOOD APPEARS TO BE OVER SERN OK INTO N-CNTRL/NERN TX
AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH SPREAD EWD OUT
OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
..MEAD.. 02/05/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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