Feb 5, 2008 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Feb 5 19:44:16 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the parts of the mid south this afternoon and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20080205 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20080205 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20080205 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20080205 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 051939
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
   
   VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM AR INTO WRN KY...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM
   NERN TX INTO SWRN OH...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
   INTO CENTRAL OH...
   
   ...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY
   FOR LONG-TRACK DAMAGING TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS LEADING EDGE OF IMPRESSIVE
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH DRYLINE OVER TX. 
   CU FIELD IS EXPANDING/DEEPENING ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND SEVERAL 
   HEALTHY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE HILL/ELLIS/DALLAS COUNTY
   AREA.  JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE IS NOTED
   ALONG AN AXIS ROUGHLY 100 MI WIDE INTO SERN OK.  AIRMASS IS WARMING
   NICELY ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW WELL INTO THE
   70S.  18Z SOUNDINGS JUST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE
   CENTRAL GULF COAST SUGGEST STRONG CAP HAS WEAKENED AND LIFTED...PER
   SHV/LZK/JAN.  AS THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES IT APPEARS THIS
   CAP WILL LIFT AND BECOME NEGLIGENT.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS THAT EXIST
   WITHIN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS AR INTO NRN LA WILL DEEPEN
   BECOMING DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WELL AHEAD OF THE
   DRYLINE/COLD FRONT.  THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE SOME TIME...BUT IT
   APPEARS BY EARLY EVENING THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PROVE
   EXTENSIVE...STRETCHING FROM THE ARKLATEX...NEWD INTO WRN TN/KY...SWD
   INTO NRN LA/MS.  GIVEN THE 110KT H5 JET THAT WILL EJECT ACROSS THIS
   REGION THIS EVENING...EXTREME VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL ENHANCE
   THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.  ALTHOUGH DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE
   EXPECTED...STORM MERGERS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHOULD ENHANCE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF BOW-TYPE
   STRUCTURES DEVELOP.  THIS PROCESS MAY BECOME THE DOMINANT STORM MODE
   LATE TONIGHT EAST OF THE MS RIVER.  IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES AND
   DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS MAINLY ACROSS
   THE WRN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK.
   
   ..DARROW.. 02/05/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z