The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the parts of the mid south this afternoon and tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 051939 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM AR INTO WRN KY... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM NERN TX INTO SWRN OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL OH... ...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR LONG-TRACK DAMAGING TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS LEADING EDGE OF IMPRESSIVE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH DRYLINE OVER TX. CU FIELD IS EXPANDING/DEEPENING ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND SEVERAL HEALTHY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE HILL/ELLIS/DALLAS COUNTY AREA. JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE IS NOTED ALONG AN AXIS ROUGHLY 100 MI WIDE INTO SERN OK. AIRMASS IS WARMING NICELY ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW WELL INTO THE 70S. 18Z SOUNDINGS JUST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUGGEST STRONG CAP HAS WEAKENED AND LIFTED...PER SHV/LZK/JAN. AS THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES IT APPEARS THIS CAP WILL LIFT AND BECOME NEGLIGENT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS THAT EXIST WITHIN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS AR INTO NRN LA WILL DEEPEN BECOMING DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WELL AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE SOME TIME...BUT IT APPEARS BY EARLY EVENING THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PROVE EXTENSIVE...STRETCHING FROM THE ARKLATEX...NEWD INTO WRN TN/KY...SWD INTO NRN LA/MS. GIVEN THE 110KT H5 JET THAT WILL EJECT ACROSS THIS REGION THIS EVENING...EXTREME VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL ENHANCE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED...STORM MERGERS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES DEVELOP. THIS PROCESS MAY BECOME THE DOMINANT STORM MODE LATE TONIGHT EAST OF THE MS RIVER. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS MAINLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK. ..DARROW.. 02/05/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z