The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected from eastern and southern texas into the lower mississippi valley this afternoon and tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 161614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN TX INTO WRN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES TO UNFOLD THIS MORNING AS SEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS INTO SWRN TX. THIS WILL DRIVE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT EJECTS ENEWD OVER THE REGION. SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA AS 90+ KT H5 AND 120 KT H25 JETS SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL TX. ENHANCED ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS INCREASING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ABOVE A SURFACE STABLE LAYER OVER W-CENTRAL/NWRN TX THIS MORNING. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...DESPITE THE ELEVATED NATURE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL /REFERENCE SWOMCD 240/. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF EWD MOVING SYSTEM...WITH SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. AT 15Z...LEADING EDGE OF COOL STABLE AIR HAS SEEPED WELL EAST OF I-35 AND SFC COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM LOW CENTER NEAR COT NNEWD TO JUST SE OF CLL AND THEN NNWWD TO A WEAKER LOW CENTER SE OF DAL. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE/DEEPEN INTO NERN TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOW RICH GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NWD ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX BY 00Z. COMBINATION OF EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND STRONG CINH FROM PRONOUNCE ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR WARM SECTOR STORMS TODAY. MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOB 1000 J/KG FROM SERN TX NWD...WITH MODERATE MLCAPE AND STRONG CAP INTO SRN TX. ROBUST WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT MAY AWAIT DEEP...FORCED ASCENT AROUND 21Z FROM PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO WRN PARTS OF THE TX COASTAL PLAIN...WHICH WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY NNEWD INTO ERN TX THROUGH 00Z. PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS STRENGTHENING LINE OF STORMS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UPPER TX COAST. HOWEVER...OVERALL MODE SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE DURING THE EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN TX INTO WRN LA BEFORE SYSTEM INGESTS WEAKER INSTABILITY OVER LA. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT /INCLUDING THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES/ WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ..EVANS.. 02/16/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z