SPC AC 181622
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST MON FEB 18 2008
VALID 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER E-CENTRAL FL...
...FL...
PRIMARY ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM FL TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER WINDS ALOFT TO A MORE WLY COMPONENT AND...COMBINED WITH
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...SUPPORT INCREASED WSWLY SURFACE
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AT TBW AND NEAR
MLB ARE BOTH SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH MODERATE LOW
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALONG WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG GIVEN
CURRENT HEATING/MOISTENING AT THE SFC. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER WEAK AND INCREASED WLY COMPONENT IN BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
WEAKEN DEEP CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL FL AHEAD OF SWD SAGGING
SURFACE FRONT. WILL OPT TO KEEP A 'LOW-END' SLGT RISK ACROSS
CENTRAL FL GIVEN AMOUNT OF MLCAPE AND SHEAR...WITH PRIMARY THREAT
BEING FROM STRONG/ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.
...ERN NC/SERN VA...
PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE NC LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST AND EXTENDS
ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AT 16Z. HEATING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
OVER ERN NC INTO SERN VA WHERE CLOUDS HAVE LIMITING MIXING AND
ATTENDANT DRYING/WLY SURFACE WINDS. SHOULD THIS MOISTURE BE ABLE TO
HOLD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...A LOW TOPPED LINE OF MOIST
CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG EWD MOVING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER AS CLEARING SHIFTS EWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PREFRONTAL
MIXING SHOULD LIMIT CONVERGENCE AS WLY WINDS SPREAD EWD AND SUGGEST
ONLY LOW WIND PROBABILITIES REMAIN WARRANTED PRIOR TO THE FRONT
MOVING OFFSHORE.
..EVANS.. 02/18/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
|
