SPC AC 260547
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF CSTL STATES...THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND FL...
...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO FL...
POS-TILT UPR TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MS VLY WILL AMPLIFY
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TN VLY AND MID-ATLC STATES ON TUE. UPR
IMPULSE NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE
MEAN TROUGH POSITION AND CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN
STATES LARGER SCALE TROUGH BY TUE NIGHT. SFC LOW ATTENDANT WITH THE
FIRST WAVE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE MID-ATLC
REGION AND INTO THE NERN STATES. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SEWD ACROSS THE SERN ATLC COAST AND FL BY 12Z WED.
A STRONG SWLY LLJ AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SEWD FROM THE DEEP S
EARLY ON TUE TO NRN/CNTRL FL BY TUE EVENING AS THE UPR TROUGH
PROGRESSES EWD. AS A RESULT...GULF BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY
UPR 60S TO NEAR 70 DEG F DEW POINTS...NOW ANALYZED OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF BASIN...WILL ADVECT NEWD BENEATH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES. BY EARLY AFTN...MLCAPES SHOULD RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG OVER
SRN PARTS OF AL/GA TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS FL.
ONE OR MORE BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN MS AND WRN
AL...WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL SVR THREAT. AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
LATER IN THE MORNING/AFTN...TSTMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS SRN GA AND THE FL PNHDL.
STRONGER SVR POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS
SCNTRL/SERN GA AND NRN/CNTRL FL WELL-AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN
THE CONFLUENT LLJ AXIS. THIS REGION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE
STRONGEST HEATING COINCIDENT WITH QUALITY MOISTURE. STRONG WSWLY
BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH
EVOLUTION INTO LEWPS/BOWS. DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. DESPITE WEAK DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...INITIAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.
ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS SEWD...PERHAPS MAINTAINING CHARACTER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN CNTRL AND PARTS OF SERN FL WITH RISKS FOR DMGG
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
...ERN CAROLINAS...
NRN EXTENT OF THE SVR THREAT IS UNCERTAIN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SURGE ACROSS ERN SC/ERN NC DURING THE MID-AFTN HOURS WITH 55-60 DEG
F READINGS POSSIBLE. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL
INHIBITION LAYER JUST ABOVE H7. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ERASED DURING
THE AFTN AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE REGION.
BUT...BY THAT TIME...STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL BE DEVELOPING/MOVING
OFFSHORE. WILL MAINTAIN LOW SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM...GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SCENARIO.
..RACY.. 02/26/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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