The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower mississippi valley and the central gulf coast region later this afternoon through early tuesday.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 031337 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 AM CST MON MAR 03 2008 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LA...MS...AL...SE AR...AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM E TX INTO PARTS OF TN...KY AND GA... RESENT DUE TO COMPUTER TRANSMISSION PROBLEM ..SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT ERN NM UPR LOW HAS NEARLY REACHED ITS SRN-MOST LATITUDE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO N CNTRL TX LATE TODAY ...BEFORE TURNING NE ACROSS WRN/NRN AR TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES FROM MN/WRN ONTARIO INTO WRN QUEBEC. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN TROUGH...NOW EXTENDING FROM LWR MI TO AR...SHOULD MOVE E TO A NRN NEW ENGLAND/WV/MIDDLE TN LINE 12Z TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECT SRN PLNS COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE SURGING S/SE ACROSS TX. A LOW EVOLVING INVOF RESULTING INFLECTION POINT NEAR THE ARKLATEX SHOULD SLOWLY DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO EJECTION OF NM/TX TROUGH. THE LOW SHOULD REACH THE BNA AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...E TX INTO THE LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST REGION... QLCS ALONG CNTRL/E TX COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG TO SVR THROUGH THE DAY AS LINE CONTINUES GENERALLY E/SE ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER INTO WRN LA BY EARLY AFTN. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELD WILL SLOWLY INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD AS NM/TX UPR LOW CONTINUES EWD...STORM STRENGTH WILL BE MITIGATED BY CONTINUING PRESENCE OF EML CAP AND LOW STRATUS. NEVERTHELESS...SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BROKEN SEGMENTS OF SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN AND...ESPECIALLY... TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LA E AND NE INTO SE AR...MS...AL...WRN/MIDDLE TN AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THIS WILL OCCUR AS 100 KT MID LVL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH TX UPR LOW FINALLY REDEVELOPS ON E SIDE OF EJECTING UPR SYSTEM. SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OF DEEP WIND FIELD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LONG...HOOKED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 SRH AOA 400 M2/S2. MERIDIONAL UPR FLOW WILL KEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES RELATIVELY WEAK. BUT DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN /DEWPOINTS AOA 60 F N TO THE TN BORDER BY 06Z TUESDAY/ SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG QLCS. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 03/03/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z