SPC AC 091246
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT SUN MAR 09 2008
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...WRN AND NRN TX...
AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW DIGGING SEWD OUT OF THE
4-CORNERS REGION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NNWWD UP
THE RIO GRANDE AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TX TODAY. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE OF LIMITED QUALITY...ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 50F
SHOULD DEVELOP INTO THE HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU AND N-CENTRAL
TX BY THIS EVENING.
DEEP MIXING/HEATING AND VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /H5 TEMPS
NEAR -24C/ WILL PROVIDE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER SERN NM AND THE
SOUTH TX PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF DEEP MIXING AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY VERY WELL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN TX LATE TODAY. STRONG DOWNBURSTS
AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS STORMS MOVE SEWD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING.
MORE WIDESPREAD MOIST CONVECTION...INCLUDING EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO
NWRN/N-CENTRAL TX ALONG NOSE OF 25-35 KT SLY LLJ OVER CENTRAL TX.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A SECOND AREA OF NOCTURNAL
STORMS SWWD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION LATE TONIGHT AS
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS SWRN TX. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY
OVER THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT MAY SUPPORT HAIL WITH STRONGER
CORES.
..EVANS.. 03/09/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
|
