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Mar 15, 2008 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook |
Updated: Sat Mar 15 10:06:25 UTC 2008 |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006). |
Public Severe Weather Outlook |
The SPC is forecasting ...more severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southeast us today....
Please read the latest public
statement about this event.
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Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
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SPC AC 150559
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL GA
INTO A PART OF SC...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY
INTO A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SERN STATES...REACHING THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY EVENING. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ENEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD THROUGH THE SERN U.S..
...SERN STATES...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL
JET AND JUST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MOSTLY FROM PARTS OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY. THESE STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT
FOR HAIL AS THEY LIFT NEWD ALLOWING THE WARM SECTOR TO DESTABILIZE
IN THEIR WAKE. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL ADVECT THROUGH WARM SECTOR OVER THE SERN STATES ALONG SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET. PLUME OF STEEP 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD
OVER THE MOISTENING WARM SECTOR...CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION
WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE CAP WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
STORMS TO REDEVELOP WITHIN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT REGIME IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR FROM SRN PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY INTO NRN AL...NRN GA AND
EWD INTO SC. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH 80+ KT WLY MID LEVEL JET
COUPLED WITH A SWLY 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LARGE LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 250
M2/S2 ALONG WITH 70+ KT BULK SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH SC AND
SRN PORTIONS OF NC DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.
..DIAL/GRAMS.. 03/15/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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