The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southeast us through this evening.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 151614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN HALF OF GA...MUCH OF SC AND SERN NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS WWD ACROSS MUCH OF TN VALLEY... ...SERN STATES... PREVIOUS DAY1 FORECAST/DISCUSSION LOOKS ON TRACK AS A POTENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT RAPIDLY EVOLVES DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN STATES. INTENSIFYING VORT MAX AS CAN BE SEEN WITH DARKENING ON W/V IMAGERY MOVING RAPIDLY EWD INTO WRN TN VALLEY TIED TO THE 90-100KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX JUST TO ITS S. BOTH FEATURES WILL ENHANCE BOTH THE SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT SPREADS ACROSS TN VALLEY AND NRN GULF STATES TO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NRN GA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACKS ENEWD INTO CENTRAL NC BY EARLY TONIGHT. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP EWD FROM THE LOW WITH THE COMBINATION OF STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG CENTRAL GA ACROSS SC. ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO NWRN GA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO SC. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL JET MAX AND A 60KT LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS SC/SRN NC BY THIS EVENING...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. HAVE EXTENDED THE MDT RISK INTO SERN NC AND COASTAL SC AS IT NOW APPEARS WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD MOVE INTO THIS AREA INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LOW. AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX AIRMASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BUT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AS STORMS SPREAD WED ACROSS TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ..HALES/HURLBUT.. 03/15/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z