The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern plains today.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 312000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS MO/AR OZARKS TO WRN/NRN AR...ERN OK...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM SRN LM TO S-CENTRAL TX... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN EVIDENT DOWNSTREAM FROM LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER WRN CONUS. THREE MOST PERTINENT SHORTWAVES FOR THIS FCST ARE -- 1. TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN NM AND W TX...WHICH IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN TX TOWARD LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. 2. PERTURBATION NOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...FCST TO EJECT ENEWD TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...AHEAD OF 3. COMPACT BUT STG TROUGH NOW EVIDENT OVER WY...WHICH SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS NEB TO IA BY 1/12Z. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- NOW ANALYZED OVER S-CENTRAL IA...IS FCST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD LM AS MIDLEVEL WAVES APPROACH. TRAILING COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM NWRN MO SWWD ACROSS WRN OK -- SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY AND MUCH OF IL/INDIANA...SEWD ACROSS AR AND NE TX...AND SWD ACROSS NWRN/N-CENTRAL TX...BY END OF PERIOD. DRYLINE -- INITIALLY DRAWN FROM SW OK SWWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX -- WILL MOVE EWD FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OVER N-CENTRAL TX...THEN SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY FROM WRN PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX SWWD ACROSS EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH MUCH OF EVENING...PERHAPS RETREATING WWD OVER SRN EDWARDS PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WARM FRONT OVER SERN IA AND NWRN IL SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS ERN IA...NRN IL...INDIANA AND LOWER MI BY END OF PERIOD. ...MO TO SRN PLAINS... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS -- INCLUDING GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING HAIL...SVR GUSTS AND TORNADOES -- WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA THROUGH EVENING HOURS. REF WW 146/147 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM THREAT FROM IL-OK. REF WW 148 FOR NOWCAST SVR THREAT OVER SRN OK AND NRN/CENTRAL TX. SVR POTENTIAL MAY BUILD FURTHER SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL TX THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AS STG HEATING...COMBINED WITH WEAKENING CINH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE...SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT OVER S-CENTRAL TX AS FARTHER N...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS REGION BENEATH MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL SPEED MAX. ...MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGIONS... SVR TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS NRN MO AND SRN IA N OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND...E OF COLD FRONT AND S OF WARM FRONT...IN ZONE OF SFC HEATING AND ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. BY AROUND 06Z...BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ORGANIZED FROM INDIANA AND IL SWWD ACROSS AR...SHIFTING EWD THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATER WITH SWD EXTENT...WHILE DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE ALONG VIRTUALLY ITS ENTIRE LENGTH. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS...WITH ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE...AND HAIL POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT GREATER ACROSS MID MS VALLEY REGION THAN FARTHER NE. LINE SHOULD REACH OH...KY...TN AND NRN MS BY 12Z...MAINTAINING AT LEAST MRGL WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. SVR PROBABILITIES DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...GIVEN NOCTURNAL NEAR-SFC COOLING...ALTHOUGH STG/ELEVATED WAA REGIME WILL SUPPORT SOME WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS OH AND WRN PORTIONS TN/KY. ..EDWARDS.. 03/31/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z