The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern plains later today through thursday morning.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 091623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT WED APR 09 2008 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL AND N TX INTO SRN AND SERN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM THE TX BIG BEND INTO SRN KS...THE OZARKS AND THE LWR TN VALLEY... ...SRN PLAINS... INGREDIENTS ARE QUICKLY COMING INTO PLACE TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE DEEPENING COLD TROUGH OVER THE SWRN U.S...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS RAPIDLY TRANSPORTING QUALITY GULF MOISTURE INTO TX AND OK. STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM SRN AR TO SWRN TX WILL RETURN NWD THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY TO RED RIVER VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THRU THE 60S MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. COMPLEX SCENARIO WITH CURRENT ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS WRN OK/NWRN TX UNDER STRONG THETAE ADVECTION REGIME. WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NWD ACROSS N TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING WITH APPROACH OF DIFFLUENT UPPER JET AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH...NEAR SURFACE BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DEVELOP VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE QUALITY OF THE AIR MASS AND STRONG DEEP VEERING SHEAR PROFILES. LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP VICINITY WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL OF LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS AND STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS TRACK ACROSS N TX INTO SRN OK THIS EVENING VICINITY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DEEPENS NEWD INTO OK TONIGHT AS THE INTENSE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVES INTO SRN HI PLAINS BY 12Z THU. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP BACK IN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN TX TO E OF DRY LINE/COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF FORCING...A SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE MOST LIKELY MODE. HOWEVER EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO LIKELY AS THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT...EVEN WITH THE NORMALLY UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER E ACROSS AR/NRN LA. WHILE SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...MDT INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST MULTICELLULAR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. ..HALES/SMITH.. 04/09/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z