The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern plains later today through thursday morning.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 092004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT WED APR 09 2008 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN OK...NRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... ...SRN PLAINS... WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DEVELOP NWD INTO THE LOW ROLLING TX PLAINS...WRN N TX AND EXTREME SRN OK. THIS FRONT COULD CONTINUE NWD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ECNTRL OK TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM BIG SPRINGS NWWD INTO SERN NM WILL LIKELY DISSOLVE ALLOWING WARM HUMID AIR TO ADVECT NWWD INTO PARTS OF THE TX S PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THROUGH LATE AFTN. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH THE AFTN. LARGE BATCH OF PRIMARILY ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS NWRN TX AND OK AT MID-AFTN...TIED TO A WEAK LEAD MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO KS...AR AND MO TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL N OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE...ATTENTION TURNS TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION ONGOING ACROSS THE ERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE BIG COUNTRY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 80S. COMBINED WITH INFLUX OF 60S SFC DEW POINTS...CINH HAS ERODED WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2000 J/KG. THUS...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE AND ORGANIZATION OF THE TSTMS THROUGH LATE AFTN. SFC-BASED TSTMS COULD ALSO INITIATE LATER THIS AFTN NWWD INTO THE SRN PARTS OF THE TX S PLAINS...THOUGH THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS ALREADY QUITE STRONG AND THE STORMS FORMING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL IN CNTRL/NRN TX. PRIMARY TORNADO CONCERN WILL BE IN A CORRIDOR ALONG/S OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE RAPID DESTABILIZATION WAS OCCURRING COUPLED WITH LOW LCLS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL TURNING OF THE WINDS. A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES COULD ACCOMPANY LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS IN THE MDT RISK. STORM CELLS SHOULD MOVE NEWD AT 30-35 KTS THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY AND TOWARD WRN N TX...NCNTRL TX AND SRN OK THIS EVENING. 18Z FWD SOUNDING WAS QUITE CAPPED...BUT WITH CONTINUED WARMING AND APPROACH OF THE SRN ROCKIES IMPULSE...THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AT SUSTAINING ORGANIZED STORMS AS THEY APPROACH AREAS N OR JUST NW OF THE METROPLEX LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. AFOREMENTIONED UPR IMPULSE WILL SWING NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. TSTMS WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN AREAS ALONG/N OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE TX PNHDL/NERN NM INTO KS/NRN OK. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY GIVE LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. BUT...PRIMARY SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OVER WRN-NRN TX INTO SRN OK. DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS GRADUALLY BACK WITH TIME...SUGGESTING THAT A MIX OF DISCRETE CELLS AND LEWPS/BOWS WILL EVOLVE LATER TONIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH ACTIVITY BACKBUILDING SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE PSBLY INTO SCNTRL TX/HILL COUNTRY. TORNADOES WILL REMAIN PSBL...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS ACROSS THESE AREAS. ..RACY.. 04/09/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z