SPC AC 100100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT WED APR 09 2008
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN TX ...S CNTRL AND SERN
OK INTO EXTREME WRN AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
EARLY THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
CNTRL AR INTO SERN OK...THEN SWWD AS A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED
BOUNDARY THROUGH NWRN TX AND SERN PARTS OF WRN TX. A DRYLINE EXTENDS
FROM NEAR SANDERSON NWD TO NEAR MIDLAND WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE WARM
FRONT. COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH ERN NM. WV IMAGERY INDICATES
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD THROUGH ERN OK...AND THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW THAT WILL LIFT ENEWD ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT APPEARS HIGHEST THIS
EVENING FROM NERN TX INTO ERN OK WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. THESE DISCRETE
STORMS HAVE BECOME SURFACE BASED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY VERY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
EAST INTO WRN AR DURING THE EVENING.
OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING
DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING UPSTREAM WAVE. INITIAL
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN COOL SECTOR ALONG AND NORTH OF SW-NE
ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WRN THROUGH NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK.
MODERATE MUCAPE...8+ C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN
TX AS THE COLD FRONT INTERCEPTS MOIST AXIS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE STRONGLY FORCED AND WILL LIKELY
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS IT MOVES NEWD THROUGH CNTRL
AND NRN TX...REACHING SRN OK BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING LEWPS AND SUPERCELLS
WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES.
..DIAL.. 04/10/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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