The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the ozarks and lower mississippi valley into the lower tennessee and lower ohio valleys today through tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 101253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM AR AND NRN LA INTO PARTS OF THE LWR OH AND LWR TN VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM SE TX TO THE LWR MO...MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT VORT MAX/JET STREAK NOW ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF W TX UPR TROUGH WILL MOVE NE INTO ERN KS THIS AFTN AND INTO IA THIS EVENING AS LARGER SCALE SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SE NEB. THE LOW SHOULD DRIFT E INTO IA EARLY FRIDAY AS 130 KT HI-LEVEL JET STREAK SWEEPS NE INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS. ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NNE INTO SE NEB THIS EVENING...AND MOVES TO NEAR DSM EARLY FRIDAY. TWO COLD FRONTS TRAILING S FROM THE LOW...AND OUTFLOW FROM PREFRONTAL SQLN AHEAD OF LEAD FRONT...WILL SERVE AS MAIN FOCI FOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD. SE OF THE LOW...RAIN/STORM OUTFLOW LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO RETARD NE MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS. THE FRONT SHOULD...HOWEVER...LIFT STEADILY NE THROUGH THE PERIOD... REACHING NRN OH BY 12Z FRIDAY. ...AR/SE MO INTO LWR MS...LWR OH AND LWR TN VLYS... WRN AR/NE TX PRE-FRONTAL SQLN SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO CNTRL AR AND NRN LA LATER TODAY. THE MCS SHOULD DECELERATE AND MAY BREAK INTO BROKEN SEGMENTS/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS BY ABOUT MIDDAY AS THE SYSTEM/S MOTION HAS CARRIED IT BEYOND STRONGEST WLY FLOW/DPVA ALOFT. AS HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION AHEAD OF THE SQLN STORMS THIS AFTN... EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY ACROSS ERN AR/NRN LA AND SE MO. CAPPING WILL BE STRONG...BUT INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALSO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STORMS FARTHER E NEAR THE MS RVR AND/OR IN NRN/WRN MS. COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY /850 DEWPOINTS AOA 14C/...EXISTING STRONGLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND ABSENCE OF STRONG/DEEP LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES. THE TORNADO SUPERCELL THREAT LIKELY WILL SPREAD N/NE INTO WRN TN/WRN KY AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN IL/SW IND A BIT LATER IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS WITH NE MOTION OF WARM FRONT. ...LWR MO VLY TO MID MS VLY... SFC HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN DRY SLOT OF OCCLUDING SFC LOW WILL CREATE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR LOW-TOPPED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS OVER THE LWR MO VLY THIS AFTN/EARLY TONIGHT. FCST WIND PROFILES SHOW PRESENCE OF A SLIGHT BACK/VEER PATTERN IN THE VERTICAL THAT...COUPLED WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY... SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO THREAT. COLD AIR ALOFT/STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD...HOWEVER...FOSTER PRODUCTION OF HAIL. FARTHER E....PROSPECTS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG LEAD COLD FRONT IN NE MO/NW IL LATER TODAY/TONIGHT APPEARS MORE LIMITED... GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS /DRY AND COOL LOW-LEVEL AIR/ AND RAIN IN UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT. IF SFC-BASED STORMS DO INDEED FORM...A LIMITED THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD EXIST. ...SRN KS/NRN OK... A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT. STRONG...DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD COULD FOSTER LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IN A FEW SPOTS. ..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 04/10/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z