The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the ozarks and lower mississippi valley into the lower tennessee and lower ohio valleys today through tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 102010 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...FAR SRN IL AND WRN KY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT...FROM E TX/LA TO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...... CORRECTED FOR MODERATE RISK COVERING SRN IL...NOT SRN IN ...SYNOPSIS... NEARLY VERTICAL CYCLONE WILL EJECT NEWD FROM KS INTO IA TONIGHT. EFFECTIVE FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM ERN KS SEWD INTO WRN AR/ERN TX WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. ...LOWER/MID MS AND WRN TN VALLEYS... STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED IN ERN AR AT MID AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION...SUNSHINE HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S. THE STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STORMS ENCOUNTER MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 70-80 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-600 M2/S2...WITH MID LEVEL JET LOCATED ABOVE 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...WITH THE KINEMATICS AND INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN AR/NWRN MS/WRN TN/SERN MO/FAR SRN IL AND EXTREME WRN KY. ANY RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TORNADOES IN THIS MOIST/STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ...OH VALLEY... THE SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD TONIGHT TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NRN MO EWD INTO SRN OH MOVES SLOWLY NWD. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION...SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE LIFTING MAY SUPPORT A SEVERE STORM THREAT OVERNIGHT. ...LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY... AT MID AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DRY SLOT WAS LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO. DUE TO STRONG COOLING ALOFT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE HEATING...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ON ERN EDGE OF DRY SLOT...AS IT SHIFTS NEWD INTO SERN NEB/WRN MO AND SRN IA. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY UNDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND PROFILES. THESE WIND PROFILES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY A HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. ..IMY.. 04/10/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z