SPC AC 161217
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0717 AM CDT WED APR 16 2008
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN AND CNTRL
KS AND A SMALL PART OF NWRN OK...
...CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...
STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE NOW DIGGING ESEWD OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN
WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE...STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW SURGING
ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND SWD ACROSS SERN CO/SWRN KS WITH LARGE
PRESSURE RISES EVIDENT IN ITS WAKE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER NERN NM/SRN CO...WITH
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING INVOF TRIPLE POINT ALONG NRN END OF DRY
LINE OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW CENTER IS
FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN ACROSS NWRN OK LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE FRONT STALLS OVER NRN OK/ERN KS.
VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AT LOW LEVELS OVER THE
SRN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS INITIAL ENERGY WILL LIFT NEWD
TODAY AS LEADING IMPULSE EJECTS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...
IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SYSTEM DURING LATTER
HALF OF PERIOD...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY OVER OK/NWRN TX THIS
EVENING. GOES SOUNDER AND MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL
BE QUITE SCARCE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS PW/S REMAIN AOB .75 INCHES NORTH
OF DEEP S TX. COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG CAPPING...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE-BASED STORMS WITHIN WARM SECTOR THEREFORE REMAINS VERY LOW
TODAY. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING VERTICAL MOTION AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING ALONG NOSE OF LLJ THIS EVENING MAY FOCUS A SMALL AREA OF
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION FROM FAR SERN CO/NWRN OK ACROSS SWRN KS THIS
EVENING...LIKELY AFTER 01-02Z. STORMS MAY INITIALLY BE NEAR-SURFACE
BASED NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN OK EARLY THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO SWRN KS. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS DESPITE MUCAPE AOB 750
J/KG...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
EVEN STRONG GUSTS WHERE STORMS TRACK NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT INTO THE
EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE TORNADO THREAT TODAY WILL BE LOW GIVEN
MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG CAP...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP LOW
PROBABILITIES INTO NWRN OK WHERE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
FEW HOURS OF NEAR-SURFACE BASED THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING.
..EVANS/SMITH.. 04/16/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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