SPC AC 191229
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2008
VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHEAST...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER
IL...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM LOW INTO
PARTS OF TN/CAROLINAS/GEORGIA. A BAND OF WEAKENING CONVECTION
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN KY INTO WESTERN NC AND EVENTUALLY INTO
SOUTHERN GA. THIS BAND WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND LIKELY WEAKEN THROUGH
THE MORNING. MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES WEST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION AND LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF FRONT
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA INDICATE MLCAPE VALUES WILL STRUGGLE TO
EXCEED 500 J/KG. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW
AND SOME DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN
STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO PRECLUDE A THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
..HART/GRAMS.. 04/19/2008
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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