SPC AC 240052
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN TX
NEWD INTO MO...
...SRN TX HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO CNTRL/NE TX...
SMALL MCS HAS EVOLVED ACROSS NCNTRL TX ALONG NOSE OF A UPR-LVL
SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING INTO CNTRL TX. DOWNSTREAM 00Z FORT WORTH
SOUNDING EXHIBITED 2400 J/KG MLCAPE AND 40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
TSTMS...PRIMARILY WITH LEADING STORMS...ACROSS CNTRL/NE TX INCLUDING
THE SRN METROPLEX THROUGH MID-EVE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD
INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX AS WELL THIS EVENING.
UPSTREAM...SMALLER SUPERCELL TSTMS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT NE OF
MIDLAND ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THESE CELLS WILL
PROBABLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS MID-LVL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
RISE IN WAKE OF THE IMPULSE MOVING INTO OK.
SUPERCELL TSTMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...TRANSITIONING INTO DMGG WIND/HAIL RISKS NEAR/S OF THE
METROPLEX. AN ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE MORE
DISCRETE STORMS NEAR/S OF DFW THROUGH MID-EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...LLJ IS EXPECTED TO VEER AS THE UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES
NEWD INTO OK OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...BACKBUILDING TYPE SCENARIO...ATOP THE COLD POOL
THROUGHOUT CNTRL/NCNTRL TX. THESE STORMS WOULD BE MORE OF A LARGE
HAIL THREAT.
...NW KS NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS...
A LEAD POLAR IMPULSE MOVING NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS WILL
SUPPORT MIGRATION OF THE SFC LOW...NOW OVER SERN WY...INTO ERN SD BY
12Z. LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE INITIATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO GROW
UPSCALE FROM ISOLD SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INTO A SMALL MCS OVERNIGHT
AS THE UPR SUPPORT TRANSLATES NEWD. INFLUX OF 50S SFC DEW POINTS
WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM INTO SD AND NRN
NEB OVERNIGHT. RESIDENT STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DMGG WIND GUSTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS THROUGH
MID-EVENING MAY PRODUCE ISOLD TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
...NE OK NEWD INTO MO...
STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PRECEDING A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE WERE
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE QUITE RANDOM DEVELOPMENT OF MULTICELL
TSTMS FROM CNTRL/NRN OK NEWD INTO MO. COOL PROFILE ALOFT/STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND
STORM MERGERS HAVE AUGMENTED PCPN CASCADES AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLD DMGG
WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
..RACY.. 04/24/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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