SPC AC 281714
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT MON APR 28 2008
VALID 281630Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NC/SERN VA/ERN
MD...
...CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC...
STRENGTHENING LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
REGION TODAY AHEAD OF DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/TN RIVER VALLEYS. SURFACE LOW NOW OVER WRN VA
WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING EWD OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST DURING THE MID EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS
MAINTAIN DEEP MOIST PROFILES AND VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL ACT TO GREATLY LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND RESULTANT THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFT INTENSITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH STRONG SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MOIST
CONVECTION AND MODEST PROBABILITIES OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE OR A
BRIEF TORNADO EVENT APPEAR WARRANTED...SEVERE THREAT/COVERAGE
APPEARS TO BE HINDERED BY THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS
THE REGION.
...OH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES...
COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET ALOFT
CHARACTERIZED BY H5 TEMPS AOB -26C AND H7 TEMPS AOB -16C WILL
CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS IL/IND/OH TODAY. DEEP ASCENT AND VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL OVERCOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS/LINES OF LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. STRONGER CORES APPEAR CAPABLE OF HAIL...SOME OF
WHICH COULD SLIGHTLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO BE BRIEF/LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
..EVANS/SMITH.. 04/28/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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