May 2, 2008 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 2 19:53:12 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...significant severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower mississippi valley today into tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20080502 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20080502 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20080502 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20080502 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 021949
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008
   
   VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SWRN KY...A SMALL PORTION
   OF SERN MO...WRN TN...ERN AR...PARTS OF NRN AND WRN MS...AND NRN
   LA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN
   UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWD TO E TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   ...MID AND LOWER PORTIONS OF BOTH THE MS AND OH VALLEYS...
   BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS -- INCLUDING SEVERAL SUPERCELLS -- CONTINUES
   FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY SSWWD ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY
   REGION...AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHERE MOIST/AMPLY-UNSTABLE
   WARM SECTOR /500 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/ REMAINS IN PLACE. 
   AREA VWP/PROFILERS CONTINUE TO SHOW FLOW VEERING/INCREASING WITH
   HEIGHT...FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED ROTATION WITHIN ANY SUSTAINED
   UPDRAFT.  WHILE SHEAR INCREASES WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS
   REGION...AIRMASS INSTABILITY INCREASES SWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST. 
   GREATEST COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS INDICATED FROM NRN LA/W CENTRAL
   MS NEWD INTO WRN TN/WRN KY.  
   
   ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...SEVERAL
   TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH NUMEROUS ONGOING
   SUPERCELLS.  THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
   AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...SHIFTING GRADUALLY EWD IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. 
   WHILE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...SOME SEVERE
   POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WITH A MORE
   LINEARLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER POSSIBLY EVOLVING LATE.
   
   ...ERN IA EWD INTO THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
   SHOWERS AND LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   NRN HALF OF IA...NEAR AND E OF SURFACE LOW NOW CENTERED OVER N
   CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.  THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED
   ACROSS THIS REGION...FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DUE TO BACKED
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH AMBIENT ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS/BRIEF
   TORNADOES...ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.  
   
   FURTHER E INTO IL/INDIANA/LOWER MI...A LESSER TORNADO THREAT IS
   INDICATED.  HOWEVER...MODELS HINT THAT STORM REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD
   OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
   CONVECTION...CONTINUING WELL INTO THE EVENING.  THOUGH WEAK
   INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY ACROSS THIS REGION...SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALLY-GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/02/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z