May 6, 2008 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 6 20:03:16 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20080506 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20080506 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20080506 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20080506 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 061959
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0259 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2008
   
   VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NEB AND WRN/NRN KS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM PORTIONS UPPER
   MIDWEST SWWD ACROSS W TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW -- INITIALLY LOCATED OVER EXTREME NRN GULF OF CA
   AND NWRN SONORA -- IS FCST TO EJECT ENEWD ACROSS BORDERLANDS OF SRN
   AZ/NM AND FAR W TX THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...REACHING SERN NM BY
   7/12Z.  AS THIS FEATURE APCHS SRN PLAINS...SFC PRESSURE FALLS ARE
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE...YIELDING BETTER DEFINED LOW INVOF CDS BY END
   OF PERIOD.  POSITION OF THIS CYCLONE BY THEN WILL BE INFLUENCED
   STRONGLY BY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PROCESSES...AND MAY BE
   DISPLACED/DIFFUSED BY OUTFLOW FROM ANY NEARBY MCS ACTIVITY.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONTAL ZONE FROM SE TX WNWWD ACROSS AUS
   AREA AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TX HILL COUNTRY...BECOMING DIFFUSE
   WNWWD ACROSS SOUTH PLAINS REGION OF W TX AND INTO ADJOINING ERN NM. 
   THIS BOUNDARY DENOTED NRN PORTION OF RICHEST LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOSE IDENTITY ACROSS W TX AMIDST
   CONTINUED SLY-SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND BROAD SWATH OF THETAE
   ADVECTION.  DRYLINE AT 19Z IS ANALYZED FROM SWRN SD SWD ACROSS WRN
   NEB AND KS/CO BORDER AREA...THEN SSWWD ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS TX
   PANHANDLE...BETWEEN TCC-CVS...NEAR ROW...SSEWD INTO BIG BEND REGION.
    AS MID/UPPER LOW APCHS...ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD
   MERGE WITH DRYLINE...THEN COMBINED BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EWD TO ROUGHLY
   100W ACROSS TX BY END OF PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC LOWS
   INITIALLY OVER SWRN SD AND N-CENTRAL SD SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE
   ENEWD ACROSS SRN MN AND WI OVERNIGHT.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
   SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF MN...NEB...SD...NERN CO AND PERHAPS NWRN KS
   BEFORE 7/12Z.
   
   ...CENTRAL-NRN PLAINS...
   BOW ECHO OVER ERN PORTIONS SD/NEB BORDER SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE
   THREAT FOR HAIL...WITH INCREASING WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS IT MOVED
   INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  REF WW 265 AND
   ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST SHORT-TERM PROGNOSIS. 
   ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO BROADER MCS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
   PORTIONS NERN NEB/IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH
   RELATIVELY DRY SFC AIR MASS AUGMENTING WIND POTENTIAL.
   
   ADDITIONAL/RAPID DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY FARTHER S ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL
   NEB AND KS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE. 
   FCST DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR
   SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NERN NEB/SERN
   SD CONVECTION. THIS BOUNDARY AT 19Z WAS QUASISTATIONARY FROM ONL
   AREA WNWWD ACROSS SANDHILLS...AND MAY FOCUS LOCALIZED TORNADO
   POTENTIAL WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT MAY INTERACT WITH AND MOVE ALONG
   BOUNDARY.  OTHERWISE...DAMAGING HAIL AND OCCASIONAL SVR GUSTS WILL
   BE PRIMARY CONCERNS.  REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 796...WW 266 AND
   SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS ON POTENTIAL
   IN THIS AREA.  ADDITIONAL TSTMS -- DEVELOPING BEHIND DRYLINE ACROSS
   PORTIONS ERN CO -- MAY BECOME SVR AS THEY MOVE TOWARD MOIST SECTOR. 
   ANOTHER MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM AFTERNOON ACTIVITY BETWEEN NRN NEB AND
   CENTRAL KS...WHICH WOULD POSE THREAT FOR SVR WIND/HAIL AS IT MOVES
   ACROSS NRN KS OR NEB OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS...EVOLVING INTO SUPERCELLS WITH
   TORNADO/DAMAGING HAIL POSSIBLE...ARE EXPECTED IN CORRIDOR FROM BIG
   BEND/DAVIS MOUNTAIN AREA OF W TX..NWD ACROSS SOUTH PLAINS AND
   PANHANDLES.  REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 795 FOR MORE DETAILED
   COVERAGE OF THIS POTENTIAL.
   
   AFTER DARK...SWATH OF STRONGEST DPVA ALOFT -- AHEAD OF EJECTING
   MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- IS FCST TO IMPINGE UPON PROGRESSIVELY
   MORE MOIST AND BUOYANT AIR MASS WITH EWD EXTENT...SUPPORTED BY STG
   LLJ UP TO NEAR 50 KT.  SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   FORM...EITHER ANEW OR LINKED WITH UPSCALE GROWTH OF
   AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY.  RATHER EXPANSIVE AND PROBABLY LINEAR
   MCS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE EWD TO ENEWD ACROSS LARGE
   PART OF NW TX AND WRN OK...PERHAPS BACKBUILDING SWD INTO W-CENTRAL
   TX.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS IN PERSPECTIVE
   INFLOW LAYER WILL REMAIN SFC-BASED...OR VERY NEARLY SO...MAINTAINING
   HAIL/WIND/TORNADO THREATS CONDITIONAL TO LOCALIZED STORM
   MODE...I.E.. BOWS/LEWPS WITHIN LINE OR SUPERCELLS AWAY FROM PRIMARY
   LINE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/06/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z