SPC AC 081538
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2008
VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MS/AL INTO MUCH OF THE
CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...
...MS/AL/WRN GA...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST MO WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY...WHILE STRONG VORT LOBE ROTATES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
MS/AL...INCLUDING A TORNADIC SUPERCELL THAT AFFECTED THE TUP AREA.
NEW LINE OF STORMS HAS INCREASED RECENTLY OVER NORTHERN MS ALONG
PRIMARY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND SPREAD ACROSS MS/AL/MIDDLE AND ERN TN.
ISOLATED CELLS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF LINE.
MORNING OBSERVED AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW
STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
AND BOWS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE /SOME STRONG/...ALONG
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS FAR EAST AS
WESTERN GA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
...WV/VA/CAROLINAS/ERN GA...
FARTHER EAST...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN GA/MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS/CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VA WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THINNING CLOUDS TO THE WEST...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
HEATING AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL VA INTO WESTERN NC/SC LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE UVVS IMPINGE ON INSTABILITY
AXIS. NORTHERN EDGE OF STRONG STORMS COULD CURL NORTHWESTWARD INTO
PARTS OF WV...AND SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN GA. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED IN
THIS REGION.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN CO.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
BY MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OVER THIS
REGION WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
PRESENT...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS ALONG WITH 12Z OPERATIONS
MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING EVOLUTION OF THESE
STORMS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KS
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KS AND NORTHWEST OK DURING THE
EVENING. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
LIKELY. RELATIVELY HIGH LCL VALUES AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT
MAY SOMEWHAT MITIGATE TORNADO THREAT. ALSO...LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN CONVECTION WITHIN 1-2 HOURS OF
SUNSET.
..HART/HURLBUT.. 05/08/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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