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Jun 11, 2008 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook |
Updated: Wed Jun 11 20:00:21 UTC 2008 |
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006). |
Public Severe Weather Outlook |
The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the corn belt and mid-missouri river valley later today and tonight....
Please read the latest public
statement about this event.
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Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
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SPC AC 111956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008
VALID 112000Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS....NEBRASKA...IOWA...MINNESOTA...AND MISSOURI...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT AREA FROM THE
OK/TX PNHDLS TO THE NRN PLAINS AND EAST ACROSS MN/IA/WI...
...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ON THE ERN FLANK OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE EWD INTO INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM ERN KS/NEB INTO SRN MN/IA AND NWRN MO THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SO FAR...DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO PRIMARILY TWO AREAS. THE FIRST AREA BEING ACROSS ND
WHERE STRONG TO OCNL SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED
BENEATH STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL JET. A SECOND AREA OF STORMS HAS MOVED OVER CNTRL/NERN IA
WHERE WAA ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A SMALL MCS THAT
WAS NOW MOVING NEWD INTO SERN MN.
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF
THE IA MCS REMAINS CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AT THIS HOUR.
HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY AND RECENT OMA SOUNDING SUGGEST THAT
INHIBITION WAS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/MIXING. OBJECTIVE DATA REVEAL A N-S AXIS OF MLCAPE RANGING
FROM 1000 J/KG OVER SERN SD TO NEAR 3000 J/KG ACROSS ERN KS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS STORM INITIATION
WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT 2
HOURS.
PROFILERS AND RAOB DATA ALL DEPICT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OF 30-40KT
VEERING TO SWLY AND INCREASING TO 50-60KT ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN POTENT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...AND SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE ADVANCING
FRONT...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH QUASI-DISCRETE
ROTATING STORMS/SUPERCELLS AND FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS. GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND POCKETS OF RESIDUAL INHIBITION POSSIBLY
TENDING TO KEEP CONVECTION DISCRETE...A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR
POSSIBLE. AREA OF STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FROM ERN NEB TO
WRN/NWRN IA AND SWRN MN WHERE STRONGER LEVEL FLOW AND LOWER LFC WILL
RESIDE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT SHORTLY AFTER
STORM INITIATION. RESIDUAL/WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF
MORNING MCS OVER CNTRL IA COULD PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
ENHANCED/SUSTAINED MESOCYCLONES IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA
INTO THE EVENING.
STORM MERGERS/EXPANDING COLD POOLS AND FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING
FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN CLUSTERS OF EWD-MOVING DEEP CONVECTION INTO
THE NIGHT. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL THREATS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS
IA AND SRN MN...AND ESEWD ACROSS NWRN MO AND ERN KS WITH TIME.
...SOUTHEAST...
AREAS OF PULSE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SCATTERED WIND
DAMAGE AND OCNL HAIL FROM THE MS/AL/FL GULF/SEA BREEZES NWD TO THE
WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS...AND ALSO ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS CAROLINA PIEDMONT. WEAK SHEAR WITHIN BROAD SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OFFSET BY POCKETS OF STRONG MLCAPE OF 2000-2500
J/KG. SCATTERED INTENSE BUT POORLY ORGANIZED STORM UPDRAFTS WILL
HAVE A TENDENCY TO PRODUCE SHORT-LIVED WET MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS
SOME HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNSET.
..CARBIN/KIS.. 06/11/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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