The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected from parts of the central and southern plains and midwest this afternoon through tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
| Categorical Graphic |
|---|
|
| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
 |
 |
| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
 |
 |
| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
 |
 |
SPC AC 152000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL IL AND IN... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SERN KS...SWRN MO...NWRN AR AND NERN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...MID MS AND CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... MCS WAS LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN MO/NERN KS AT MID AFTERNOON. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A SWD FORWARD PROPAGATING BOW ECHO AS SYSTEM INGESTS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...MLCAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG...AND STRONGER COLD POOL DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM THE COMPLEX AND 20-25 KT SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET SUGGESTS THE BOW ECHO WILL MOVE INTO ERN OK AND EXTREME WRN AR TONIGHT. UNTIL SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED... HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT ONCE STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPS...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS SWRN KS AND INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...INTERSECTION OF TROUGH/DRY LINE WITH OUTFLOWS FROM MORNING CONVECTION...COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SELY WINDS VEERING TO NWLY IN THE MID LAYERS AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WHERE MID 50 DEWPOINTS ARE MAINTAINED...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. VERY STEEP AND DEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATE SEVERE WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT... ELEVATED STORMS MAY REDEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AT THAT TIME. ..MID MS VLY INTO OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS... LINE OF STORMS WAS LOCATED IN WRN IL AND IS TO EXPECTED TRACK EWD AT 40-45KT...GIVEN 50-60 KT MID LEVEL WINDS. AIR MASS WAS STRONGLY UNSTABLE...MLCAPES APPROACHING 2500 J/KG...DUE TO LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5C/KM...PER DVN 18Z SOUNDING...AND MID 60 DEWPOINTS. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THROUGH IL AND INTO NRN/CENTRAL IN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE EWD INTO OH TONIGHT...BUT THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS INTENSE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. ...UPR GRT LKS... DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN VSBY IMAGERY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WAS AIDING IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...OVER PORTIONS OF NRN MI. MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATES HAIL AND SOME WIND DAMAGE IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. ..NRN ROCKIES... WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...LOW LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN CO NWD INTO CNTRL MT. GIVEN 40-50 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ..IMY.. 06/15/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z