SPC AC 210058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008
VALID 210100Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH
PLAINS AND EWD ACROSS SRN NEB/NRN KS TO SWRN IA/NWRN MO...
...HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD
ACROSS WY/NWRN CO. ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT TURNS MORE SEWD
THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORT ONGOING TSTMS AND NEW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS FROM WRN NEB SWD
THROUGH ERN CO. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK...
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AIDED BY 30-40 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS...A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
FARTHER S...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A MCS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SWD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/ERN NM...AS ONGOING STORM MERGERS/COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT ENHANCE THIS THREAT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ALSO
GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION PER REGIONAL 00Z
SOUNDINGS...EVENTUAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
LOCATED S OF ONGOING ACTIVITY AND AN INCREASE IN LLJ SUGGESTS MCS
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELIHOOD FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
...SRN NEB/NRN KS EWD TO SRN IA/NWRN MO...
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A ZONE OF ONGOING TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SRN
NEB EWD INTO SRN IA ALONG A SWD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. ASCENT WITH
A COUPLE OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION
SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID-LATE
EVENING...PRIOR THE ONSET OF STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION
DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING. RESIDUAL MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT SUGGESTS BOTH MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
...LOWER MS VALLEY...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SERN MO/NERN AR...IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
AR/WRN TN SWD POTENTIALLY INTO NRN LA/NWRN MS. ALTHOUGH THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...MODERATE INSTABILITY
LOCATED S OF THE ONGOING STORMS IN NRN/WRN AR AND A BAND OF STRONGER
MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAINS
POSSIBLE YET THIS EVENING. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE AIR
MASS UNDERGOES FURTHER STABILIZATION DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.
...SC...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK IMPULSE LOCATED OVER ERN TN
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD INTO
THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING NEW
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN SC LATER THIS EVENING/
OVERNIGHT AS ASCENT WITH THIS IMPULSE REACHES THIS AREA. RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY...WHILE 30 KT OF
WLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE TN VALLEY TO CAROLINAS
MAINTAINS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
STORMS.
..PETERS.. 06/21/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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