SPC AC 220057
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008
VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO IA/NRN MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS...
...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
STRONG ASCENT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NRN
CA/SRN ORE COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
HIGH BASED TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES PER 00Z
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
...SRN SD/NEB/NRN KS/WRN AND SRN IA/NWRN MO...
A BAND OF 40-50 KT NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...AS ASCENT WITH A MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACKS SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. A WSWLY
LLJ IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM KS INTO NRN MO TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY.
THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR AN AREA OF ELEVATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO TONIGHT AS WAA INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION
ALONG THE NOSE THE LLJ. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW OF THESE ELEVATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE A
HAIL THREAT.
...SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS EXISTS ACROSS A PART OF
SERN CO SWD THROUGH NM...PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 35-40 KT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT BOTH A
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
...OH VALLEY TO OZARKS...
A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER LOWER MI/OH...WILL
PROGRESS EWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT. ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT EWD ACROSS MUCH OF NY/PA INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE THE
EXPECTED COVERAGE OF TSTMS ACROSS THIS LARGE AREA...DECREASING
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO MAINLY THIS
EVENING WITH A FEW STORMS PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL/STRONGER WIND
GUSTS.
..PETERS.. 06/22/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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