Jun 22, 2008 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jun 22 16:26:13 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20080622 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20080622 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20080622 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20080622 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 221622
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1122 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008
   
   VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A LARGE AREA FROM THE NRN
   ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE OH VALLEY...APPALACHIANS...AND
   NEW ENGLAND...
   
   ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE EVENING...
   A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS ROTATING AROUND A BROADER
   MID LEVEL LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED WAVES
   MOVING NEWD TOWARD SW QUEBEC...ESEWD FROM IL...AND SSEWD OVER WI/MN.
    THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE PATTERN IS QUITE MUDDLED WITH SEVERAL
   DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGHS/FRONTAL SEGMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
   LEVEL WAVES.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S PRECEDE THE
   INITIAL MID LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGHS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO NEW
   ENGLAND...WHILE RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S PERSIST ACROSS THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES IN PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL LOW.
   
   THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7/5
   C/KM...AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-15 TO -19 C AT 500 MB/ WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 750-1500 J/KG.  VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL BE WEAK OVER WI/MI CLOSE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW...AND
   SOMEWHAT STRONGER IN A BELT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND IN CONJUNCTION WITH 35-50 KT FLOW AROUND 500
   MB.  IT APPEARS THE SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED THREAT AREA FOR BOTH
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...WILL STRETCH FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY
   ACROSS CENTRAL PA INTO NY...IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
   DIFFUSE FRONTAL SEGMENT APPROACHING FROM THE W.  VERTICAL SHEAR AND
   INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND
   BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND
   LARGE HAIL THROUGH LATE EVENING. 
   
   ...HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES MID
   LEVEL LOW...HAS STALLED ALONG AN AXIS FROM N CENTRAL MT...TO NE
   WY...TO WRN AND CENTRAL KS.  12Z SOUNDINGS AND REGIONAL SURFACE
   ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
   THE RANGE OF 48-54 F ACROSS MT...52-56 F FROM WRN SD INTO WRN
   NEB...AND 56-60 F ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN KS.  AFTERNOON SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
   ALLOW AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
   FRONT IN KS/NEB...AND THE FRONT/HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NE WY INTO MT. 
   INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER FARTHER TO THE SE...BUT THUNDERSTORM
   COVERAGE WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS MT BY THE TRAILING LOBE OF THE
   STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NEWD INTO ALBERTA.  THE STRONGER
   STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS...GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY LARGE
   TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
   STRONGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHERE AN ISOLATED
   SUPERCELL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 06/22/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z