Jul 2, 2008 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 2 12:14:16 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20080702 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20080702 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20080702 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20080702 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 021210
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0710 AM CDT WED JUL 02 2008
   
   VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES...
   MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
   NEB INTO MN AND FAR NORTHERN WI.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
   TODAY IN ADVANCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM LOWER MI INTO NEB/KS. 
   SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL MAINTAIN
   DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
   CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
   OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
   
   ONGOING CONVECTION OVER IA/WI WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
   WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED HAIL.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY
   EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL AND SPREAD ACROSS LOWER
   MI WITH A RISK OF A FEW SUPERCELLS.  DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
   THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BY LATE
   AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN.
   
   FARTHER WEST...STORMS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE FRONT FROM NORTHERN
   IL INTO PARTS OF EASTERN NEB/KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH
   VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER IN THIS AREA...IT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT
   FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS.  ACTIVITY MAY SAG INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM THE BIGHORN MTNS OF WY INTO NORTHEAST CO.  IT APPEARS
   LIKELY THAT DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   OVER THIS REGION WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-1800
   J/KG.  ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS AXIS AND TRACKING ACTIVITY SOUTHEASTWARD
   INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING.  DESPITE RATHER WEAK LOW
   LEVEL WINDS...VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND FAVORABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
   WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR A RISK OF SUPERCELLS. 
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO.
   
   ...SRN ROCKIES...
   DIURNAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WITHIN A STEEP
   LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.  THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
   WITH DCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG
   WIND GUSTS WITH SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.
   
   ...PACIFIC NW...
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD
   ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL
   RESULT IN SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
   OVER THE CASCADES...PERHAPS INTO COLUMBIA BASIN.  CONVECTIVE
   INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...BUT THE
   PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
   A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
   
   ...FL...
   VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY COOL
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. 
   DIURNAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED ALONG STRENGTHENING
   SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WHERE LOCALLY STRONG WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY
   IS POSSIBLE.
   
   ...NEW ENGLAND...
   NEWD MOVEMENT OF MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
   THE 60S WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TODAY WITH
   MLCAPES OF 1000 J/KG.  SCATTERED...DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
   EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON ALONG REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY WITHIN
   KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT EXHIBITING STRONG UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
   WINDS...BUT GENERALLY WEAK MID TO LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.  A FEW OF THE
   STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL
   INTO THIS EVENING.
   
   ..HART/JEWELL.. 07/02/2008
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z