SPC AC 040057
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT THU JUL 03 2008
VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN
WA...
...PAC NW...
NOCTURNAL TSTMS PERSISTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN WA THROUGH PEAK
HEATING AS A LEAD MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MIGRATED FROM THE COLUMBIA RVR
VLY INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN ITS WAKE...TCU/CB HAVE BEEN
HAVING A TOUGH TIME SUSTAINING ALONG THE SRN WA/ORE CASCADES/BLUES
PROBABLY OWING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. WEAK ASCENT/COOLING ALOFT
WILL BE SPREADING NWD ALONG WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LVL THERMAL RIDGE IN
PLACE E OF THE CASCADES THIS EVE/OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
ROTATES NWD AROUND THE UPR TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE CST. THIS MAY
SUPPORT THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF SCT TSTMS ALONG/JUST E OF THE WA
CASCADES AND PERHAPS SWD INTO THE ORE CASCADES AND BLUES. HIGHEST
SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE RELEGATED TO THE WA CASCADES/
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY WAS LOCATED.
ROUGHLY 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND SVR WIND GUSTS.
...SC/SE AZ...
SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWAT AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL ENE TRAJECTORIES HAVE
BEEN FAVORABLE FOR STG-SVR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIM AND
PROPAGATE TOWARD THE DESERT FLOOR. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SWWD AND
PRODUCE ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS/DUST STORMS AND PERHAPS
HAIL...PARTICULARLY OVER PINAL AND CNTRL/ERN PIMA COUNTIES THROUGH
EVENING WHERE 00Z SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT THE WEAKEST DESERT FLOOR
INHIBITION.
...ERN CO...
MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW INVOF FRONTAL SURGE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A FEW
TSTMS ALONG/E OF THE FRONT RANGE IN ERN CO THIS AFTN. 00Z DNR
SOUNDING EXHIBITED ABOUT 1340 J/K MLCAPE AND H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR
8 DEG C PER KM. BULK SHEAR WAS WEAK...SO TSTMS WILL TEND TO BE
DISORGANIZED...BUT COULD PULSE TO SVR LEVELS WITH ISOLD LARGE HAIL
AND SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID-EVENING.
...MID-SOUTH WWD TO ERN OK...
MULTICELL TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS ERN OK...SRN MO
AND NRN/CNTRL AR AMIDST MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR. STORM MERGERS WILL ALLOW CELLS TO BRIEFLY ACHIEVE PULSE SVR
CHARACTER WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL THROUGH MID-EVENING.
..RACY.. 07/04/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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