SPC AC 071952
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2008
VALID 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WV...VA...AND
NC...
...SERN MN/WI/IA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. ONE AXIS OF SEVERE THREAT WILL LIE
FROM NORTHERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN INTO CENTRAL WI. A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THIS AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND
MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR ISOLATED
SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS CORRIDOR WITH A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. PLEASE REFER TO WW 663
AND MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
...ND/SD/WRN MN...
ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS IS OVER EASTERN ND/SD AND
WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS BENEATH UPPER TROUGH
IN REGION OF COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AXIS...AND MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS. EASTWARD EXTENT
OF THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN MN.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1713.
...NEB/KS...
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR FSD INTO WESTERN
KS. HOT CONDITIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN A
DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND WEAK
CAPPING WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...DESPITE RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.
...WV/VA/NC...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE BENEATH UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SLOW PROPAGATION OF STORMS
EASTWARD. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST SLOW-MOVING
MULTICELL CORES.
..HART/KIS.. 07/07/2008
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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