Jul 15, 2008 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 15 00:52:19 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20080715 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20080715 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20080715 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20080715 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 150048
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008
   
   VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MN...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL NEB...
   
   ...NRN MN...
   WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE
   ACROSS THE NRN U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS SWRN
   ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS NRN MN WITH
   A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A SMALL
   POCKET OF MOISTURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHERE
   SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
   FLOW DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER NRN MN SHOULD RESULT IN
   A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE SWWD INTO NWRN MN THIS EVENING.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING SHOW STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ABOUT 7.5 C/KM.
   THIS SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH ROTATING
   STORMS THAT DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...RUC DATA INDICATE 0-3 KM LAPSE
   RATES RANGE FROM 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM SUGGESTING ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY
   ALSO OCCUR.
   
   ...CNTRL NEB...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   OVER CNTRL NEB WHERE A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS ONGOING ATTM. THE
   STORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR A SFC LOW WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.
   THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ENEWD ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE NORFOLK NEB AREA. REGIONAL
   PROFILERS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTS BELOW 3 KM IN
   THE VICINITY OF THE STORMS WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
   SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT WITH THE BOWING LINE
   SEGMENT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR AS
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/15/2008
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z