SPC AC 050012
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2008
VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN IL INTO NRN
IND...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN LA INTO THE UPPER TX
COAST...
...IL/IND...
PROGRESSIVE DERECHO-PRODUCING MCS APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING OVER NWRN
IL AS OF 00Z WITH SYSTEM SITUATED ALONG A WNW-ENE LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH EXTENDS INTO NRN IND. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF
THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT IS STRONGLY TO
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 4000-6000 J/KG. AREA PROFILERS AND
VWPS INDICATE 35-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN MCS ESEWD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE APEX OF THE EVOLVING BOW ECHO ACROSS
N-CNTRL/NERN IL INTO NRN IND. MCS MAY CONTINUE SEWD INTO A
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER LATE TONIGHT OVER OH AS
STRENGTHENING...NOCTURNAL LLJ MAINTAINS AN INFLOW OF THE STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO SYSTEM FROM THE W/SW.
FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 2028 AND WW 807.
...CNTRL PLAINS...
SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
ALONG/S OF WRN EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY OVER ERN CO WHERE
MLCAPES ARE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG. TSTMS MAY TEND TO ORGANIZE A COLD
POOL THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY PROPAGATING EWD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY
MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ALONG IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF
BOUNDARY OVER SRN NEB/NRN KS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
...SERN TX AND SRN LA...
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE UPPER TX COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME STRENGTHENING
POSSIBLE - SEE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NHC. AS CONVECTIVE BANDS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE SUPPORTIVE FOR
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
..MEAD/GUYER.. 08/05/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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