SPC AC 050052
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT THU SEP 04 2008
VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...OH AND TN VALLEYS...
THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH TWO NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION EXTENDING SWD ACROSS
IND...WRN KY...TN INTO MS AND AL. THIS CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG
AN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE WEAKENED
SOME EARLY THIS EVENING...LOW-LEVEL FLOW /40 KTS AT 1 TO 2 KM/
REMAINS STRONG AS SAMPLED BY THE LOUISVILLE KY WSR-88D VWP. THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH
ROTATING STORMS OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE
MULTICELLS.
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NW FLOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD INTO CNTRL ROCKIES
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN ERN CO ON THE
NOSE OF THE JET AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE TONIGHT IN
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SHOW MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE WITH THE INSTABILITY BASED WELL ABOVE 700 MB. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS. CONSIDERING FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS OF -12C/ THE STORMS
SHOULD HAVE A HAIL THREAT. IF A FEW SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP...THEN A
CORRIDOR WITH HAIL COULD EXIST FROM NE CO ESEWD INTO WCNTRL KS.
..BROYLES.. 09/05/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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