SPC AC 140101
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008
VALID 140100Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF LA/AR AND
SOUTHERN MO...
...ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY TO OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
TROPICAL STORM IKE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN AR/FAR EASTERN OK INTO SOUTHERN MO THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AMIDST A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO
MID 70S F DEWPOINTS...REGIONAL PROFILERS/DOPPLER-DERIVED WINDS AND
00Z RAOBS FROM LITTLE ROCK/SHREVEPORT CONTINUE TO SAMPLE VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ON THE EASTERN HALF OF REMNANT IKE THIS
EVENING. AS THESE DATA SUGGEST...STRONG TO EXTREME 0-1 KM SRH OF
300-600 M2/S2 WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES/POSSIBLE TORNADOES THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM
CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA INTO SOUTHERN MO.
...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES VICINITY...
WITH MULTIPLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE
WSW-ENE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST
TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES VICINITY WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS THOUGH THE NIGHT. OWING TO STRENGTHENING FLOW
ALOFT AND A STEADILY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET...HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A
TORNADO/PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUST RISK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...OWING TO WEAKENING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY/WEAK LAPSE
RATES...ANY SUCH RISK SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE.
..GUYER.. 09/14/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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