SPC AC 031621
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT FRI OCT 03 2008
VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INLAND FROM THE ERN PAC TO NRN
CA/ORE/WA THIS PERIOD...WITH A BROAD REGION OF DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT
FALLS OVER THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE...IN COMBINATION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES.
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL INDUCE INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS
/ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT/. THE MOST FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND
MOISTENING IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WHERE THE LLJ IMPINGES ON A
RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NE STATES...INVOF NE OK. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS PROBABLE LATE TONIGHT OVER THIS AREA...WHERE RELATIVELY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH
THE MORE INTENSE STORMS AFTER 06Z.
..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 10/03/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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