Oct 4, 2008 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 4 12:41:16 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20081004 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20081004 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20081004 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20081004 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 041237
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0737 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008
   
   VALID 041300Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL CARVE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
   WESTERN STATES AND ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM
   RIDGE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY.  IN RESPONSE TO
   STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST...PRESSURE FALLS WILL
   SOLIDIFY SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING FROM LOW
   CENTER OVER ERN MT INTO WRN TX.  IN ADDITION...LARGER WARM FRONT
   WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO THE
   LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TODAY...WITH ERN END LIFTING NNEWD
   OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MID MS/MO RIVER VALLEYS.
   
   ...MID MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
   AS SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT...LOCATION FOR MOST
   FAVORABLE DEEP ASCENT ALONG NOSE STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ WILL
   OVERSPREAD THIS REGION AND SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   AFTER 06Z.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR MODEST
   MUCAPE AND LIKELY SUPPORT HAIL /SOME OF WHICH MAY BE MARGINALLY
   SEVERE/ IN THE STRONGER CORES.
   
   ...ELSEWHERE...
   ONGOING CLUSTER/S OF STORMS OVER ERN OK INTO FAR SERN KS/SWRN MO AND
   WRN AR ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID MORNING AS
   DIURNAL MIXING WEAKENS WSWLY LLJ.  PRIMARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN SHIFT TO DIURNAL INCREASE IN MOIST CONVECTION
   WITHIN LARGER AREA OF SEASONABLY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER
   THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES.  DEEP MIXING NEAR LEE TROUGH MAY
   ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. 
   OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS REMAINS QUITE LOW WITH
   MEAGER INSTABILITY.
   
   ..EVANS.. 10/04/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z