SPC AC 241937
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008
VALID 242000Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL/SOUTHERN GA TO COASTAL CAROLINAS...
MID AFTERNOON SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES 1010 MB SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHWARD FROM NEAR THE SOUTHWEST GA/FL BORDER TO
SOUTHEAST GA. AROUND 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXIST IN THE WARM SECTOR
AMIDST BACKED SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...ALTHOUGH AMPLE CLOUD
COVER HAS HINDERED SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES TENDING TO HOLD
IN THE 70S F.
IN SPITE OF LIMITED LIGHTNING THUS FAR TODAY WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
AND WARM THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE IN A NARROW ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN
FL...AMIDST AN OVERLAP OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LARGE 0-1 KM
HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER...WSR-88D DERIVED WIND PROFILES AROUND 1 KM
CONTINUE TO REFLECT A GRADUAL VEERING TREND THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...A LIMITED TORNADO/SEVERE WIND THREAT
MAY SHIFT NEWD ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS IN
VICINITY OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL BOUNDARY. IN SPITE OF THE VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR
JUSTIFIED AT THIS TIME GIVEN A RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS AND THE VERY
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LIKELY TO EXIST INLAND THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
..GUYER.. 10/24/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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